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Mathematical models for parasites and vectors

Edited by: Prof Maria-Gloria Basanez

Collection published: 14 May 2011

Last updated: 16 May 2013

Mathematical models of parasitic infections can provide useful tools for a range of endeavours, yet their full potential has not been realised. Their uses can span from parasite population biology and between- / within-host dynamics, to supporting the implementation of interventions against those species of public and animal health importance.

As stated in the Thematic Series on Elimination of Parasitic Infections, the impetus for elimination of parasites and vectors of human disease (in settings where this is deemed feasible) is gathering strength. The battle against human malaria is leading the way, as it did with one of the first mathematical models for infectious disease, that of Ross in 1911. Continuing this tradition, the Malaria Eradication Agenda has placed modelling at its core. The World Health Organization Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections of Humans has included mathematical modelling among its key research and development priorities. In other infectious, zoonotic, and emerging diseases, mathematical modelling plays a pivotal role in capturing their spread in real-time, and provides opportune advice to policy makers, public health organizations and government bodies

In this Series, we wish to capitalise on this momentum and bring together a wide range of articles that use mathematical and statistical methodologies to further, amongst others, our understanding of the ecology and transmission biology of parasites (whether as single species or in co-infections), the population biology of their intermediate hosts and vectors, the impact on transmission dynamics of ecological change, whether deliberate (antiparasitic and / or antivectorial) or unintended (environmental and / or climate change) and the epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes of interventions. In addition, we wish to discuss quantitatively current and future efforts towards parasite and vector control and elimination / eradication.

By providing a forum for contributions on the modelling of parasites and vectors, we hope to help fulfil the potential that the field has to offer to basic and applied scientists as well as to the managers, stake-holders and end-users of programmes aiming to control parasitic disease in a broad range of organisms.

		Research Field transmission intensity of Schistosoma japonicum measured by basic reproduction ratio from modified Barbour's model Shu-Jing Gao, Yu-Ying He, Yu-Jiang Liu, Guo-Jing Yang, Xiao-Nong Zhou Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:141 (16 May 2013) Abstract \| Provisional PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary Transmission dynamics of S. japonicum to account for seasonal variation and the effectiveness of the control strategy adopted in Xingzi county, China were introduced, after the explicit formula of the basic reproduction ratio for the SV-modified Barbour?s model was derived. Image: The main definitive bovine host of Schistosoma japonicum in marshland of Xingzi country, China.
		Research Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans population dynamics by interval lagged weather data Karin Lebl, Katharina Brugger, Franz Rubel Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:129 (2 May 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary In this study the correlations between Cx. pipiens/restuans and time lagged environmental factors were investigated. The time lagged environmental factors were used to generate a predictive model for the population dynamic of the mosquitoes. Image: Cross-correlation map showing the correlation of the mosquito capture rates with different lags for daytime length.
		Research Modelling the risk of being bitten by malaria vectors in a vector control area in southern Benin, west Africa Nicolas Moiroux, Abdul S Bio-Bangana, Armel Djènontin, Fabrice Chandre, Vincent Corbel, Hélène Guis Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:71 (15 March 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| ePUB \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary We analysed the spatio-temporal risk of the contact between humans and the sympatric An. funestus and both M and S molecular forms of An. gambiae s.s. in an area of Benin with high coverage of vector control measures with an unprecedented level of resolution .Image: Predictive spatial distribution of An. gambiae s.s. M form.
		Research Spatial abundance and clustering of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) on a local scale Carsten Kirkeby, René Bødker, Anders Stockmarr, Peter Lind Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:43 (22 February 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| ePUB \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary We conducted a comprehensive study of the spatial distribution of Culicoides vectors on a single field. The impact of temporal and spatial factors was quantified. We identified a dynamic pattern of spatial clustering significantly affecting estimates of abundance. Image: An author in the light of one of the light traps used in the study.
		Research How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission Torleif Markussen Lunde, Mohamed Nabie Bayoh, Bernt Lindtjørn Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:20 (18 January 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary With global warming a reality, we show how the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which Anopheles mortality model is used to make such predictions. Image: A survival curve.
		Research Mathematical evaluation of community level impact of combining bed nets and indoor residual spraying upon malaria transmission in areas where the main vectors are Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes Fredros O Okumu, Samson S Kiware, Sarah J Moore, Gerry F Killeen Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:17 (16 January 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary Where malaria transmission is mediated by Anopheles arabiensis, adding IRS to LLINs adds only modest incremental benefits when organophosphates are used, but can be redundant when pyrethroids are used or regressive when DDT is used for IRS. Beyond the physical protection that intact nets provide, additional protection conferred by insecticides in LLINs or IRS will be remarkably small. Image: A diagrammatic representation of a house in which both LLINs and IRS are used.
		Research Topographic models for predicting malaria vector breeding habitats: potential tools for vector control managers Jephtha C Nmor, Toshihiko Sunahara, Kensuke Goto, Kyoko Futami, George Sonye, Peter Akweywa, Gabriel Dida, Noboru Minakawa Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:14 (16 January 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| ePUB \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary Practical models were developed to predict larval habitats of malaria vectors. Since the models require only free elevation data and free software, they are potentially applicable to many malaria endemic areas in Africa. Image: Predicted risk map.
		Research Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Sardinia using a discrete-time population model Thibaud Rigot, Annamaria Conte, Maria Goffredo, Els Ducheyne, Guy Hendrickx, Marius Gilbert Parasites & Vectors 2012, 5:270 (22 November 2012) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary Longitudinal entomological surveillance networks are valuable sources of information in order to characterize insect vector population dynamics. Here, we present the results of a model which predicts monthly population abundance of the main bluetongue vectors found in the Mediterranean basin, as a function of eco-climatic variables recorded either by remote-sensing or by weather stations, one time-step before insect catches. Image: Predicted distribution of the dominant BT vector in Sardinia.
		Research Spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria transmission in rural Western Kenya Nyaguara Amek, Nabie Bayoh, Mary Hamel, Kim A Lindblade, John E Gimnig, Frank Odhiambo, Kayla F Laserson, Laurence Slutsker, Thomas Smith, Penelope Vounatsou Parasites & Vectors 2012, 5:86 (28 April 2012) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary This study describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria transmission in rural western Kenya. Bayesian zero-inflated models were used to analyze sparse geostatistical entomological data and produce smooth maps of entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Image: Spatial variation of malaria transmission measured by EIR.
		Research Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics Michael T White, Jamie T Griffin, Thomas S Churcher, Neil M Ferguson, María-Gloria Basáñez, Azra C Ghani Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:153 (28 July 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| 1 comment \| Editor’s summary Vector control interventions will affect the dynamics of An. gambiae s.l. populations, at both the adult and aquatic stages. A model of the lifecycle of An. gambiae s.l. is developed and fitted to field data, and the implications for vector control strategies are evaluated. Image: An. gambiae taking a blood meal (CDC Image Library).
		Research Modelling age-heterogeneous Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni survey data via alignment factors Nadine Schur, Jürg Utzinger, Penelope Vounatsou Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:142 (20 July 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary This study describes the use of age-alignment factors in schistosomiasis risk mapping to relate prevalence data on children with data on adults and entire communities. Bayesian geostatistical alignment factor models are superior to the omission of age heterogeneous data and un-aligned schistosomiasis risk modeling. Image: Age-alignment factor results with credible intervals for Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni.
		Research Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax Peter W Gething, Thomas P Van Boeckel, David L Smith, Carlos A Guerra, Anand P Patil, Robert W Snow, Simon I Hay Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:92 (26 May 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary Using dynamic mathematical models describing the effects of ambient temperature on vector survival and parasite development, along with high-resolution global temperature data, this study presents a mapped index of temperature suitability for transmission of the two malaria parasites of principal public health concern. Image: Temperature suitability across Africa.
		Research Modeling horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the gut of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius prolixus Scott Matthews, Vadrevu Rao, Ravi V Durvasula Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:77 (14 May 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary A paratransgenic approach to reducing arthropod vector competence via genetically modified symbionts is being applied to Chagas disease. A theoretical model and laboratory validation predict negligible horizontal gene transfer in the gut of R. prolixus from the transformed symbiont R. rhodnii to a related non-target bacterium, G.rubropertinctus. Image:Rhodnius prolixus, a triatomine bug vector of Chagas disease.

		Research Field transmission intensity of Schistosoma japonicum measured by basic reproduction ratio from modified Barbour's model Shu-Jing Gao, Yu-Ying He, Yu-Jiang Liu, Guo-Jing Yang, Xiao-Nong Zhou Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:141 (16 May 2013) Abstract \| Provisional PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary Transmission dynamics of S. japonicum to account for seasonal variation and the effectiveness of the control strategy adopted in Xingzi county, China were introduced, after the explicit formula of the basic reproduction ratio for the SV-modified Barbour?s model was derived. Image: The main definitive bovine host of Schistosoma japonicum in marshland of Xingzi country, China.
		Research Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans population dynamics by interval lagged weather data Karin Lebl, Katharina Brugger, Franz Rubel Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:129 (2 May 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary In this study the correlations between Cx. pipiens/restuans and time lagged environmental factors were investigated. The time lagged environmental factors were used to generate a predictive model for the population dynamic of the mosquitoes. Image: Cross-correlation map showing the correlation of the mosquito capture rates with different lags for daytime length.
		Research Modelling the risk of being bitten by malaria vectors in a vector control area in southern Benin, west Africa Nicolas Moiroux, Abdul S Bio-Bangana, Armel Djènontin, Fabrice Chandre, Vincent Corbel, Hélène Guis Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:71 (15 March 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| ePUB \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary We analysed the spatio-temporal risk of the contact between humans and the sympatric An. funestus and both M and S molecular forms of An. gambiae s.s. in an area of Benin with high coverage of vector control measures with an unprecedented level of resolution .Image: Predictive spatial distribution of An. gambiae s.s. M form.
		Research Spatial abundance and clustering of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) on a local scale Carsten Kirkeby, René Bødker, Anders Stockmarr, Peter Lind Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:43 (22 February 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| ePUB \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary We conducted a comprehensive study of the spatial distribution of Culicoides vectors on a single field. The impact of temporal and spatial factors was quantified. We identified a dynamic pattern of spatial clustering significantly affecting estimates of abundance. Image: An author in the light of one of the light traps used in the study.
		Research How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission Torleif Markussen Lunde, Mohamed Nabie Bayoh, Bernt Lindtjørn Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:20 (18 January 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary With global warming a reality, we show how the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which Anopheles mortality model is used to make such predictions. Image: A survival curve.
		Research Mathematical evaluation of community level impact of combining bed nets and indoor residual spraying upon malaria transmission in areas where the main vectors are Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes Fredros O Okumu, Samson S Kiware, Sarah J Moore, Gerry F Killeen Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:17 (16 January 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary Where malaria transmission is mediated by Anopheles arabiensis, adding IRS to LLINs adds only modest incremental benefits when organophosphates are used, but can be redundant when pyrethroids are used or regressive when DDT is used for IRS. Beyond the physical protection that intact nets provide, additional protection conferred by insecticides in LLINs or IRS will be remarkably small. Image: A diagrammatic representation of a house in which both LLINs and IRS are used.
		Research Topographic models for predicting malaria vector breeding habitats: potential tools for vector control managers Jephtha C Nmor, Toshihiko Sunahara, Kensuke Goto, Kyoko Futami, George Sonye, Peter Akweywa, Gabriel Dida, Noboru Minakawa Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:14 (16 January 2013) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| ePUB \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary Practical models were developed to predict larval habitats of malaria vectors. Since the models require only free elevation data and free software, they are potentially applicable to many malaria endemic areas in Africa. Image: Predicted risk map.
		Research Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Sardinia using a discrete-time population model Thibaud Rigot, Annamaria Conte, Maria Goffredo, Els Ducheyne, Guy Hendrickx, Marius Gilbert Parasites & Vectors 2012, 5:270 (22 November 2012) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary Longitudinal entomological surveillance networks are valuable sources of information in order to characterize insect vector population dynamics. Here, we present the results of a model which predicts monthly population abundance of the main bluetongue vectors found in the Mediterranean basin, as a function of eco-climatic variables recorded either by remote-sensing or by weather stations, one time-step before insect catches. Image: Predicted distribution of the dominant BT vector in Sardinia.
		Research Spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria transmission in rural Western Kenya Nyaguara Amek, Nabie Bayoh, Mary Hamel, Kim A Lindblade, John E Gimnig, Frank Odhiambo, Kayla F Laserson, Laurence Slutsker, Thomas Smith, Penelope Vounatsou Parasites & Vectors 2012, 5:86 (28 April 2012) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary This study describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria transmission in rural western Kenya. Bayesian zero-inflated models were used to analyze sparse geostatistical entomological data and produce smooth maps of entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Image: Spatial variation of malaria transmission measured by EIR.
		Research Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics Michael T White, Jamie T Griffin, Thomas S Churcher, Neil M Ferguson, María-Gloria Basáñez, Azra C Ghani Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:153 (28 July 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| 1 comment \| Editor’s summary Vector control interventions will affect the dynamics of An. gambiae s.l. populations, at both the adult and aquatic stages. A model of the lifecycle of An. gambiae s.l. is developed and fitted to field data, and the implications for vector control strategies are evaluated. Image: An. gambiae taking a blood meal (CDC Image Library).
		Research Modelling age-heterogeneous Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni survey data via alignment factors Nadine Schur, Jürg Utzinger, Penelope Vounatsou Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:142 (20 July 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary This study describes the use of age-alignment factors in schistosomiasis risk mapping to relate prevalence data on children with data on adults and entire communities. Bayesian geostatistical alignment factor models are superior to the omission of age heterogeneous data and un-aligned schistosomiasis risk modeling. Image: Age-alignment factor results with credible intervals for Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni.
		Research Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax Peter W Gething, Thomas P Van Boeckel, David L Smith, Carlos A Guerra, Anand P Patil, Robert W Snow, Simon I Hay Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:92 (26 May 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Cited on BioMed Central \| Editor’s summary Using dynamic mathematical models describing the effects of ambient temperature on vector survival and parasite development, along with high-resolution global temperature data, this study presents a mapped index of temperature suitability for transmission of the two malaria parasites of principal public health concern. Image: Temperature suitability across Africa.
		Research Modeling horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the gut of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius prolixus Scott Matthews, Vadrevu Rao, Ravi V Durvasula Parasites & Vectors 2011, 4:77 (14 May 2011) Abstract \| Full text \| PDF \| PubMed \| Editor’s summary A paratransgenic approach to reducing arthropod vector competence via genetically modified symbionts is being applied to Chagas disease. A theoretical model and laboratory validation predict negligible horizontal gene transfer in the gut of R. prolixus from the transformed symbiont R. rhodnii to a related non-target bacterium, G.rubropertinctus. Image:Rhodnius prolixus, a triatomine bug vector of Chagas disease.