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How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission

Torleif Markussen Lunde124*, Mohamed Nabie Bayoh3 and Bernt Lindtjørn2

Author Affiliations

1 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Norway

2 Centre for International Health, University of Bergen, Norway

3 KEMRI/CDC Research and Public Health Collaboration, Kisumu, Kenya

4 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Research, Norway

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Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:20  doi:10.1186/1756-3305-6-20

Published: 18 January 2013



It is well known that temperature has a major influence on the transmission of malaria parasites to their hosts. However, mathematical models do not always agree about the way in which temperature affects malaria transmission.


In this study, we compared six temperature dependent mortality models for the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. The evaluation is based on a comparison between the models, and observations from semi-field and laboratory settings.


Our results show how different mortality calculations can influence the predicted dynamics of malaria transmission.


With global warming a reality, the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which mortality model is used to make such predictions.

Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto; Climate; Temperature; Mathematical model